Southern Africa saw the driest February in decades due to a severe El Niño weather pattern.
This scorching dry spell has dealt a devastating blow to agriculture, crippled electricity generation, and threatens to drive already high food prices even higher. According to preliminary data from the University of California Santa Barbara’s Climate Hazards Centre, vast swathes of Zambia, Botswana, and Zimbabwe received little to no rain in February, the driest conditions since record-keeping began in 1981.
The center’s preliminary evaluation relied mostly on satellite-based rainfall projections, with a full assessment due next week that will include more rainfall gauge measurements. The El Niño phenomenon, characterised by exceptionally warm sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, alters global weather patterns and typically results in lower rainfall in Southern Africa. This year is no exception.
In Zambia, President Hakainde Hichilema proclaimed a national catastrophe after an estimated 45% of planted corn succumbed to the drought conditions. Beyond agriculture, the drought is affecting energy generation in Southern Africa, which relies heavily on hydropower as declining water levels at dams are jeopardizing power producing capability. This mix of circumstances, including failing harvests and anticipated power outages, creates a bleak picture of regional food security.
The Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) recently asked Zimbabwe and Zambia’s electricity companies, ZESA Holdings and ZESCO Limited, to maintain an average power production of 214MW until the end of March 2024. Water flows in the Zambezi River, which power turbines used to generate electricity in both countries, are less than a quarter of what they were a year ago, as ZRA reduced the water allocation for power generation to the two utilities by 47%, from 30 billion cubic metres (BCM) in 2023 to 16 BCM in 2024.
In a statement, ZRA stated that a hydrological evaluation in the following weeks might result in an increment, reduction, or the retention of the current 8 BCM allotment.”Given that the outcome of the rainfall forecast is generally below normal, the Authority has maintained the 16 BCM water allocation over the first quarter of 2024, providing for a combined annual average power production of 428MW, shared equally.
“The hydrological review will among other factors considering the actual performance of the 2023/2024 rainfall season and the resulting inflows into the lake over the first quarter of the year 2024.
“The results of the hydrological simulations could result in an increment, reduction or the keeping of the prevailing 2024 water allocation as is.”The Kariba Catchment has had below-normal rainfall due to El Niño weather conditions. ZRA warns that this rainy season may see one of the lowest inflows on record.
